The Executive Director of the International Energy Agency talks about the role energy plays in reactivating the world's economy, as well as in national security as in the case of the Middle East, Europe and the United States.

According to Nabuo Tanaka, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) energy plays a critical role in fueling economic growth and ensuring national security - yet it also accounts for 84% of global CO2 emissions. If there is no change in government policies, energy use will increase by 40% by 2030. Because carbon-intensive fossil fuels - coal, natural gas and oil - will account for the predominant portion of this growth in demand, CO2 emissions will rise by 40% by 2030 in this business-as-usual scenario. This trajectory is quite simply unsustainable - economically, socially and environmentally.

IEA analysis shows that the energy sector can make a notable contribution to achieving green growth, in particular through technological innovation and development of low-carbon energy technologies. To ensure secure, affordable and clean supplies of energy for current and future generations, we need a transformation in world energy to decouple economic growth from CO2 emissions, and we must act to start this transition now. The good news is that thanks to the global economic crisis, in cumulative terms to 2030, global emissions are projected to be 35 Gt lower than projected in 2008. This gives us a renewed motivation to act and economic stimulus measures can and are being directed toward a lower-carbon future, with many OECD countries taking the lead.

So what might a lower carbon future look like, what role will energy technology play and how do we get there. The IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 set out the '450 Scenario' - the IEA's low-carbon energy path to Green Growth. This scenario shows how the energy sector can help to limit the concentration of CO2-equivalent emissions to 450 ppm - roughly equating with a temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. The red line at the top of this graph shows the trajectory for Reference Scenario - or business and usual - emissions, while the green line shows that for the 450 Scenario.

The 450 scenario sees CO2 emissions peak before 2020 at 30.9 Gt (3.8 Gt less than in the Reference Scenario) and fall sharply thereafter, reaching 26.4 Gt in 2030 - equivalent to 13.8 Gt of abatement relative to the Reference Scenario in 2030. Figure 1 identifies the key technologies needed to achieve the 450 Scenario. Energy efficiency is the single most significant element, the 'low hanging fruit', accounting for over half of total abatement by 2030 in the IEA 450 Scenario. Renewable energy will also play a significant role, accounting for a further 20% of abatement. Nuclear and CCS are also crucial. Power systems will also need to evolve more flexibility to cope with larger shares of variable renewables, demand response and storage.

Innovation through enhanced research, development, deployment and demonstration (RDD&D) of new technologies will also be crucial. The IEA has created roadmaps for key technologies (e.g. carbon capture and storage, wind, electric vehicles, cement manufacturing, photovoltaic, concentrated solar power, nuclear), which can guide environmental and energy decision makers on the path to needed innovations. Many low-carbon technologies currently have higher costs than the incumbents. It is only through technology learning from RDD&D that these costs can be reduced and the technologies become economic.

In short, to make this future a reality requires a revolution in the way that we produce and use energy. But there are significant energy security benefits from this scenario: using energy more efficiently and accelerating the switch to low-carbon or zero-carbon energy sources should see reduced import dependency, increased diversification of energy sources and lower energy bills - all important elements of a green growth strategy.

Nobuo Tanaka is Executive Director, International Energy Agency

Source: New Europe